Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 140236
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0300 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CUIDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 85.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 85.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.3N 84.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.7N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.5N 80.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.0N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 85.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN