Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 140855
TCMAT3
HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
0900 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 84.9W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 84.9W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.9N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.3N 80.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN