Hurricane Paula

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTNT23 KNHC 142043
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
2100 UTC THU OCT 14 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS


THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.8W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 82.8W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 23.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA