Hurricane Richard

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 210231
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
0300 UTC THU OCT 21 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.1W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.1W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 80.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.4N 81.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.3N 81.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N 84.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 19.5N 90.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH