Hurricane Richard

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 232033
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER AND FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 84.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.3N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 15SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 87.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.8N 88.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 35SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.2N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 93.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE