Hurricane Richard

Forecast Advisory 15

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 241439
TCMAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1500 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR HONDURAS FROM EAST OF LIMON TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE
* HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO PUERTO CORTES AND THE BAY
ISLANDS...INCLUDING ROATAN...UTILA...AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL
* HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUERTO CORTES TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA
BORDER

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF
GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS.....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS....THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 86.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 86.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS