Hurricane Richard

Forecast Advisory 16

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000
WTNT24 KNHC 242050
TCMAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BELIZE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF YUCATAN MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA TO CHETUMAL


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 88.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 88.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 89.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.3N 94.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 88.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH