Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 292031
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC FRI OCT 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 57.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 57.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 55NE 45SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 65NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART