Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 2

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 292356
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0000 UTC SAT OCT 30 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* GRENADA
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.6W AT 30/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 60SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.6W AT 30/0000Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 56.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 55NE 50SE 45SW 55NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 57.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN