Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 8

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 310245
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* TOBAGO
* GRENADA

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL BE DISCONTINUING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND GRENADA AT MIDNIGHT AST.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 62.1W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 62.1W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 14.0N 63.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.6N 65.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.9N 68.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...135NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 55SE 55SW 65NW.
34 KT...135NE 105SE 105SW 135NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 15.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 62.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN