Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 10

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 311443
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF BARBADOS...FRANCE...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 63.7W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 25SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 45SE 45SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 63.7W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.5N 65.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.9N 67.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.0N 69.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.0N 70.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 15.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 63.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN