Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 11

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 312030
TCMAT1
HURRICANE TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 80SE 40SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.7N 66.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 15SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 15.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 69.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.0N 71.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 65SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 72.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 64.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI