Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 12

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 010234
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0300 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 66.5W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 105SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 66.5W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 66.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 14.4N 68.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.7N 69.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 73.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 66.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG