Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 14

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 011433
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1500 UTC MON NOV 01 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.7W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.7W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 68.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 68.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

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FORECASTER CANGIALOSI