Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 17

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 020832
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0900 UTC TUE NOV 02 2010

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...HAITI...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 72.0W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 72.0W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 71.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

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FORECASTER PASCH