Hurricane Tomas

Forecast Advisory 21

---

000
WTNT21 KNHC 030832
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
0900 UTC WED NOV 03 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

INTERESTS IN HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS. TOMAS COULD POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THOSE AREAS LATER IN THE WEEK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 75.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 75.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 75.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 76.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.3N 76.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 75.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 71.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 75.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS