Tropical Storm Arlene

Forecast Advisory 2

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000
WTNT21 KNHC 290235
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011
0300 UTC WED JUN 29 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO
BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 94.1W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 94.1W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.8N 95.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.0N 96.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 97.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 21.7N 98.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 21.3N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 94.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN