Tropical Storm Bret

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 172032
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
2100 UTC SUN JUL 17 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.4N 78.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 28.2N 77.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.0N 77.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.4N 76.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 34.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 36.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 78.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART