Tropical Storm Gert

Forecast Advisory 4

---

761
WTNT22 KNHC 142041
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
2100 UTC SUN AUG 14 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 63.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 63.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.3N 63.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.3N 63.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 34.9N 61.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 63.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART