Tropical Storm Harvey

Forecast Advisory 4

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207
WTNT23 KNHC 192042
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EAST OF PUNTA PATUCA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF BELIZE
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA
SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 84.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N 86.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 87.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.6N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 20SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.0N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 18.5N 96.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 84.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN