Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 16

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054
WTNT24 KNHC 240837
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC WED AUG 24 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 72.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 74.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.1N 75.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.8N 76.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.7N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.0N 76.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 36.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 42.0N 71.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN