Hurricane Irene

Forecast Advisory 20

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020
WTNT24 KNHC 250850
TCMAT4

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING
THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 76.2W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT.......220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 76.2W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 28.2N 77.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 30.4N 77.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.3N 77.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 36.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 42.5N 72.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 51.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 76.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN





052
WTNT25 KNHC 250855
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102011
0900 UTC THU AUG 25 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 30.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 30.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 29.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.8N 31.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.5N 33.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.5N 34.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.5N 35.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 36.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 22.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 30.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN