Hurricane Maria

Forecast Advisory 4

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000
WTNT22 KNHC 071447
TCMAT2

HURRICANE KATIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT.......180NE 135SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 320SE 260SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 68.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.6N 69.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 75NW.
34 KT...180NE 135SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.8N 69.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.4N 69.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.1N 66.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 135SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 42.5N 52.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 240SE 210SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 60.0N 8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 68.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




000
WTNT24 KNHC 071457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 42.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 42.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 20.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 42.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA