Tropical Storm Nate

Forecast Advisory 1

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000
WTNT25 KNHC 072100
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
2100 UTC WED SEP 07 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 92.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 92.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY