Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 4

---

581
WTNT21 KNHC 212031
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC WED SEP 21 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 44.7W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 44.7W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 13.8N 46.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.1N 49.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 51.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 44.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH