Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 5

---

710
WTNT21 KNHC 220239
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OPHELIA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 46.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.0N 48.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.2N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.3N 55.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 30SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 21.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 46.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN