Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 11

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559
WTNT21 KNHC 231454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 52.6W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 52.6W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 52.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.6N 54.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 56.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.9N 58.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.1N 60.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.2N 64.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 23.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 52.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART