Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 15

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237
WTNT21 KNHC 241454
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.0W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 100SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 56.0W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 55.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.8N 57.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.9N 59.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.9N 60.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 21.6N 61.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 23.3N 63.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 25.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 27.3N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 56.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





877
WTNT22 KNHC 241459
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 26.7W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 26.7W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 26.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 11.4N 28.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 12.2N 30.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.2N 32.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.2N 33.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.4N 36.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 18.4N 38.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 26.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART