Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 16

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750
WTNT21 KNHC 242040
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 57.4W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......225NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 57.4W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 57.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 58.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.6N 60.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...200NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 24.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 27.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 57.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





548
WTNT22 KNHC 242055
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 27.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 27.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 27.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.6N 29.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 12.5N 31.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 13.6N 33.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 14.8N 34.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 36.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 27.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART