Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 27

---

283
WTNT22 KNHC 290840
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.7W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.7W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 41.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N 43.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N 45.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N 48.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.9N 52.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N 56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 41.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





942
WTNT21 KNHC 290841
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 61.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 60.9W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 61.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.9N 62.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.8N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 46.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 54.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 61.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH