Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 29

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720
WTNT21 KNHC 292036
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 62.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 30SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 62.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 51.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 53.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





377
WTNT22 KNHC 292038
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 43.6W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......165NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 43.6W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.4N 44.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...135NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.8N 48.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 50.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 25.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG