Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 31

---

642
WTNT21 KNHC 300840
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 62.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 62.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 63.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.6N 61.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.3N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 51.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





491
WTNT22 KNHC 300845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.9W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 44.9W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.9N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.9N 47.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.5N 49.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.9N 51.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 25.0N 58.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN