Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 36

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348
WTNT21 KNHC 011443
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 62.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 62.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 45SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 42.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.5N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 240SE 105SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 50.5N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 225SE 225SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 62.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





365
WTNT22 KNHC 011444
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1500 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 48.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 45SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 48.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.4N 49.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.9N 51.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.1N 53.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 26.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG