Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 38

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746
WTNT22 KNHC 020251
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 49.8W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 49.8W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.8N 51.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.0N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.8N 57.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 31.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 49.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





217
WTNT21 KNHC 020251
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 62.2W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 105SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 62.2W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 62.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 400SE 400SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN