Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 39

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394
WTNT21 KNHC 020834
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 61.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 40SW 35NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 61.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 62.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.9N 60.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.4N 56.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 47.9N 48.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 45SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 180SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 50.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 56.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 400SE 400SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





526
WTNT22 KNHC 020834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0900 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 50.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 50.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.8N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 25.7N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 25.6N 56.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.6N 58.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 32.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI