Hurricane Ophelia

Forecast Advisory 42

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762
WTNT21 KNHC 030236
TCMAT1

HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 58.6W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 29 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......180NE 200SE 60SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 540SE 420SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 58.6W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.5N 59.7W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.6N 53.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 200SE 120SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 49.8N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 53.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 360SE 480SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 58.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





896
WTNT22 KNHC 030241
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
0300 UTC MON OCT 03 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 53.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 53.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 53.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.9N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.6N 58.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.5N 60.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.1N 61.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 27.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 30.2N 58.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 53.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN