Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 15

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775
WTNT21 KNHC 272034
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 60.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 60.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 60.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 61.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 29.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 37.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 60.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH





293
WTNT22 KNHC 272034
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.0W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 36.0W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 35.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.4N 37.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.5N 38.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.9N 39.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.3N 41.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.6N 42.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 24.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 25.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 36.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN