Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 22

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020
WTNT21 KNHC 291445
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 61.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 61.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 61.6W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 62.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 55SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 38.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 55.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 61.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





272
WTNT22 KNHC 291452
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.6W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 0SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.6W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.7N 43.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...135NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.1N 45.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.3N 47.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 60SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.1N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 24.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 24.5N 57.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 24.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG