Hurricane Philippe

Forecast Advisory 38

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546
WTNT21 KNHC 031442
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
AVALON PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.1N 52.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 32 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 250SE 175SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 540SE 420SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.1N 52.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 54.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 50.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 240SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 180SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.1N 52.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN





881
WTNT22 KNHC 031453
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011
1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2011

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 55.8W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 90SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 55.8W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 54.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 25.0N 57.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.2N 59.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.7N 60.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 26.5N 60.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 28.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 55.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG