Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 13
094
WTNT25 KNHC 042031
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.3W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 72.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 21.5N 90.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 70.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
836
WTNT21 KNHC 042031
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
2100 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.7W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.7W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 31.2W
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.6N 38.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.1N 41.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 47.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
