Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 14
804
WTNT25 KNHC 050246
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 72.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 19 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 72.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 71.7W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N 75.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 78.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N 81.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N 82.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 72.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
165
WTNT21 KNHC 050248
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 33.0W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 33.0W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 32.4W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 34.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 37.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 39.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 42.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.9N 55.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 33.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
