Hurricane Ernesto
Forecast Advisory 16
034
WTNT21 KNHC 051438
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 35.0W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.7N 37.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.9N 40.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.4N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N 46.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 35.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
927
WTNT25 KNHC 051441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 76.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 77.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
158
WTNT25 KNHC 051441
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 76.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 77.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
742
WTNT25 KNHC 051455
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
CORRECTED FORMAT IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION.
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 77.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 76.1W
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N 81.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N 83.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N 92.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 77.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
