Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 23

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297
WTNT25 KNHC 070850
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD
TO CANCUN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND
WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* NORTH OF PUNTA ALLEN TO CANCUN ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* FROM CELESTUN SOUTHWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 83.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 83.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 85.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.4N 92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.3N 96.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN