Hurricane Ernesto

Forecast Advisory 26

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250
WTNT25 KNHC 072050
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS
FOR HONDURAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHETUMAL TO TULUM ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
* COZUMEL
* COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA
* SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA
* CELESTUN SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO CHILITEPEC ALONG THE GULF COAST
OF MEXICO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 86.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH