Hurricane Isaac

Forecast Advisory 4

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094
WTNT24 KNHC 220247
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 55.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.8N 58.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.2N 61.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.7N 64.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.1N 67.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N 72.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N 76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 55.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH