Hurricane Kirk

Forecast Advisory 12

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348
WTNT22 KNHC 311438
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 49.1W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 49.1W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 48.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 17.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.6N 56.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 23.8N 61.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.9N 62.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 27.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE





123
WTNT21 KNHC 311442
TCMAT1

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 50.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 50.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.1N 50.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.7N 47.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 44.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 43.0N 39.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 50.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN