Hurricane Leslie

Forecast Advisory 4

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361
WTNT21 KNHC 310847
TCMAT1

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 50.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 50.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 31.7N 50.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 41.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 50.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





263
WTNT22 KNHC 310848
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 47.8W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 47.8W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.1N 50.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.4N 52.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.6N 55.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 57.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 25.5N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 27.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 47.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG