Hurricane Leslie

Forecast Advisory 8

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247
WTNT22 KNHC 010845
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 52.8W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.2N 57.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 21.6N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.1N 60.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 26.5N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 28.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 53.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





107
WTNT21 KNHC 010846
TCMAT1

HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.2W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 130SE 110SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 48.2W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 48.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.7N 46.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 41.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 46.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 48.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA