Hurricane Leslie

Forecast Advisory 30

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030
WTNT23 KNHC 062030
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 41.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 41.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 41.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.1N 41.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N 42.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.8N 42.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 36.2N 45.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 40.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 41.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS





246
WTNT22 KNHC 062036
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
2100 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 62.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 220SE 180SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 62.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 62.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 26.6N 62.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 27.0N 62.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 60SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 32.0N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 35.5N 60.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 41.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA