Hurricane Leslie

Forecast Advisory 45

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970
WTNT23 KNHC 101449
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 46.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 46.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.5N 45.9W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 37.5N 48.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 41.2N 46.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 45.9N 42.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 54.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 46.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN





724
WTNT22 KNHC 101455
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1500 UTC MON SEP 10 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOR TO TRITON.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM STONES COVE TO CHARLOTTETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EFFECT FOR...
* NEWFOUNDLAND FROM INDIAN HARBOUR TO TRITON

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 41.4N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 48.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 55.0N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 270SE 250SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 60.5N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 180SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 360SE 300SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...ABSORBED


REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA